Navigant: North American plug-in EV sales to exceed 2.6M annually by 2030

Tuesday January 21, 2020 0 comments Tags: Boulder, Navigant Research, Raquel Soat, PEVs

BOULDER -- North American light duty PEV sales are anticipated to grow throughout the 2020s to nearly 2.7 million PEVs by 2030, according to a new report from Navigant Research.

The report analyzes the impact that purchase incentives, battery pack prices, vehicle availability, and zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) policies have on the North American plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) population diffusion.NavigantNEWlogoUSE 

Despite slowed market growth, PEV sales are on track for another record year in North America and worldwide, the report notes.

PEVs are increasingly being considered by more consumers as a top choice for their next vehicle purchase, more states are implementing purchase incentives and are in talks to adopt ZEV policies, and the price of PEV technologies continues to decline. 

“PEVs are expected to represent about 14% of the market share for total light duty vehicle (LDV) sales in North America by 2030,” said Raquel Soat, Navigant research analyst.

“Several challenges remain that hinder the PEV market, such as consumer awareness, need for stakeholder investment in public charging infrastructure, and ambiguity in current federal regulatory policy, but these challenges are gradually eroding as EV technologies continue to mature.”

According to the report, PEV populations have typically clustered around urban areas in states with incentives, with buyers being male, highly educated, and in upper income brackets.

However, a shift in demographics and vehicle population is beginning to occur, the report notes. Emissions, fuel efficiency, and ZEV policies continue to be key in increasing the adoption and awareness of PEVs.

The report, Market Data: EV Geographic Forecast - North America, analyzes the impact that purchase incentives, battery pack prices, vehicle availability, and ZEV policies have on PEV population diffusion by state/province and metropolitan areas.

Using the Vehicle Adoption Simulation Tool (VAST), Navigant Research believes battery pack prices, vehicle availability, purchase incentives, and ZEV policies are crucial to understanding PEV adoption, and can offer recommendations to stakeholders based on changes to these four forecast levels.

New additions to the 2019 version of the Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts report include charging port forecasts on a national and state/province level as a function of vehicle adoption in the area, as well as EV sales and population broken out by vehicle class (passenger cars and light trucks).

An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant website.