Friday September 22, 2017 0 comments
BOULDER -- According to a new report from Navigant Research, 2017 sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in North America are on track to be 50 percent greater than in 2016.
The report examines the PEV market in North America, providing detailed geographic breakdowns of sales and populations for the United States and Canada under conservative, base, and aggressive forecast scenarios.
While PEV sales are expected to grow quickly in states with zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandates, Navigant said states and provinces with desirable PEV incentives, less stringent vehicle capability and range requirements, and positive demographic characteristics related to PEVs are also projected to be market leaders.
Overall, in North America, the PEV market has grown by a factor of 10 since 2011, the report notes, and 2017 is headed toward another record-breaking year.
“California continues to lead the United States with strong PEV penetration,” said Scott Shepard, Navigant senior research analyst.
“However, growth from Northeastern states should pick up soon, and quickly, with increased stringency of ZEV mandates and multiple state PEV purchase rebate programs.”
To date, Navigant said PEV populations have clustered in urban areas where census data indicates consumers have high levels of educational attainment and wealth, as well as driving patterns well-suited to the current class of PEVs.
According to the report, this correlation is likely to weaken as the used PEV market develops and cheaper PEV offerings enable greater adoption among a wider range of vehicle owners.
Additionally, the expanding PEV population has wide reaching implications for the electric power sector and key industry stakeholders looking to address the needs of this new class of vehicle owner.
The report, Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts, provides an update to Navigant Research’s annual Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecast. The study assesses PEV sales and population diffusion as a function of a range of factors, including growing consumer awareness, increased PEV capability, the development of the used PEV market, and declining battery costs.
Additional analysis is provided on the likely impacts of vehicle automation and Navigant Research’s method for implementing these impacts within model results. Detailed geographic breakdowns of PEV sales and populations for the United States and Canada are provided by state and core-based statistical area (CBSA) and province and census agglomeration area (CA). Forecasts are provided under three scenario conditions (conservative, base, and aggressive).
An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.