Guidehouse Insights: Sales of light duty plug-in EVs expected to account for 13% of all light duty vehicle sales by 2030

Thursday January 21, 2021 0 comments Tags: Boulder, Guidehouse Insights, plug-in vehicles, Raquel Soat

BOULDER -- North American light duty plug-in vehicle (PEV) sales are expected to grow to nearly 2.7 million by 2030, representing about 13% of total LDV sales and a reduced long-term market share, according to a new report from Guidehouse Insights.Guidehouse-logo 

The report forecasts plug-in EV adoption in the US and Canada on a national, state/province, and metropolitan level through 2030.

Global sales of light duty (LD) PEVs reached nearly 2.5 million in 2019 with a sales growth of 30% compared to 2018. In 2020, however, the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic spurred a decline in both the LD PEV market and the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market.

In North America, LDV sales are expected to decrease by 20% from 2019 levels – but, for LD PEVs, the North American market is expected to see just a 5% decrease.

“Despite economic impacts to the LDV market, PEVs are proving to be a resilient vehicle market segment in some regions of the world,” said Raquel Soat, research analyst with Guidehouse Insights.

“The wealthier consumer base that currently purchases PEVs is likely to experience fewer impacts from the economic recession and still consider purchasing a vehicle, whereas other consumers may have to put their purchasing plans on hold.”

The LD PEV forecast also takes into account short-term fuel price drops and lower than anticipated demand for electric powertrains in North America relative to other global regions.

Overall, North American LD PEV sales forecasts range from 2.3 million to 2.8 million in 2030 from the conservative to aggressive scenarios, while PEV population forecasts range from 11.2 million to 15.3 million.

The report, Market Data: EV Geographic Forecast - North America, analyzes EV technology innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the US and Canada on a national, state/province, and sub‑state/province level.

Guidehouse Insights employs the Guidehouse Vehicle Adoption Simulation Tool (VAST) to create three forecast scenarios. The forecasts include passenger car (PC) and light truck (LT) breakouts, as well as powertrain breakout by plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and battery EVs (BEVs).

Additionally, the report includes charging port forecasts by residential and nonresidential use cases on a national and state/province level. All forecasts have a conservative, base, and aggressive scenario.

An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse website.